The project Data-Driven Roadmaps for Catalyzing Green Growth in Eastern Europe (2025–2027) focuses on supporting green industrial transformation in three Central and Eastern European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, and Romania. Its objectives are to strengthen domestic green manufacturing and technological capabilities, and to foster export-led growth in low-carbon technologies.
As a first step in the project, an analysis of global megatrends affecting green transition was carried out, based on the systematic mapping and review of relevant international, European, and national-level reports, complemented by targeted academic and policy studies. The collected materials were subjected to qualitative content analysis. The analysis was co-developed by project partners through an iterative process that combined desk research with expert dialogue and cross-country exchanges.
It was concluded that the global green transition is unfolding within a complex and volatile environment, shaped by both accelerating megatrends and heightened geopolitical, social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value-based uncertainties.
The findings highlight a paradox: while technological and industrial momentum toward net-zero is clear, geopolitical fragmentation, environmental shocks, regional disparities, and contested societal values create uncertainty over the pace and equity of the transition. Europe’s ability to balance competitiveness, security, and justice will determine whether the green transition strengthens cohesion and resilience, or deepens divides both within the EU and globally.
The countries in focus – Bulgaria, Estonia, and Romania – while well-positioned to benefit from new green technologies, face persistent structural challenges: lower innovation capacity, demographic decline, skills shortages, and weaker readiness to absorb green investment. Traditional sectors such as coal, forestry, and agriculture remain significant employers, complicating economic diversification. Yet the region has opportunities to become a hub for clean-tech production and exports if supported by targeted policies, infrastructure upgrades, and workforce development.
The project is being implemented by the Institute of Baltic Studies in Estonia, in cooperation with the Center for the Study of Democracy in Bulgaria, the Energy Policy Group in Romania, and Fraunhofer ISI in Germany. The research has been supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), under the European Climate Initiative (EUKI).